DENVER — The Broncos should not be nuts about the Bolts.

The revelation is as depressing as a leverage penalty. The truth is as sobering as Dre Greenlaw’s sore quadriceps.

Just when we thought the Broncos could win the AFC West with the Chiefs dissolving before our eyes, they must level up against the Chargers. Not this season. Not in January.

Now.

Lose to the Chargers and Denver trails by three games in the division three weeks into the season. It is impossible to overstate the importance of Sunday, which is conveniently part of a larger narrative.

Sean Payton vs. Jim Harbaugh is not a game. It is a referendum. Which coach is better? On the headset? In the draft? With free-agent picks?

Payton has delivered in Denver, taking over a once-proud franchise that was a dysfunctional mess and restoring swagger and respect. Not bad for someone who was the Broncos’ third choice. The Walton-Penner ownership group wanted Harbaugh, then DeMeco Ryans, before circling back.

It was the right decision, especially since Harbaugh wasn’t leaving a future national champion Michigan team for Russell Wilson.

But for it to be a great decision, it requires another Super Bowl title.

And suddenly Payton finds Harbaugh standing in his way.

Payton coached circles around NFC South rivals for 15 years. It provided the backbone for his success, not unlike Bill Belichick mopping up the AFC East. But this is different. Every coach in the AFC West has a Hall of Fame resume.

And just as Payton learned to Reid the room against the Chiefs, he faces a greater challenge.

The Broncos match up well with the Chiefs because, outside of quarterback Patrick Mahomes, their offense doesn’t scare anyone. They don’t run the ball well, no longer throw deep successfully, and tight end Travis Kelce looks like he should have retired after the Super Bowl.

The Chargers are younger, meaner and know exactly who they are. Every Harbaugh team has a run-first identity.

Which brings us back to the referendum on Payton.

What can his offense hang its hat on? What does this group do best?

Payton can match Xs and Os with anyone. But beating Harbaugh demands rolling in the slop. His teams are tough, disciplined and predictable. They do what they do well and dare you to stop them.

The Broncos could not last season. They were swept, and the Chargers’ wins had Harbaugh’s fingerprints all over them. They had five penalties for 28 yards, compared to Denver’s 14 for 98. They won the turnover battle, controlled the clock and rushed 66 times for 245 yards. Denver countered with 39 for 220.

One team is a brute. One team gets cute. And so far, it has not worked for Payton. He is 1-4 lifetime against Harbaugh, including 0-2 on the road. Every game — three with the Saints and two with the Broncos — has been decided by one score.

Can Payton clear this hurdle? We figured he would solve Reid — and the Broncos are 2-2 in their last four against the Chiefs and should be 3-1.

Payton’s biggest problem is that he is not Harbaugh. And he hasn’t figured out a formula to beat him.

This is where it gets interesting, and how these matchups will determine which team hired the best coach.

Payton chose the Broncos because of ownership, tradition and the ability to hand-pick his quarterback in Bo Nix. Harbaugh waited a year, won a ring, flipped off the NCAA and married his Super Bowl aspirations to Justin Herbert.

Nix is good. Herbert is an MVP candidate.

Payton chose youth at receiver — Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant — and kept tight end Evan Engram from signing with the Chargers in free agency. None of the Broncos’ wideouts has produced like Ladd McConkey, a second-round pick for Harbaugh in 2024. And as much as the story was that Engram chose the Broncos, maybe the Chargers lucked out by missing out.

Engram has been ineffective and injured. But Tyler Conklin, the Chargers’ new tight end, has two catches in two games. Call this a push.

Where this comparison gets fascinating is in the trenches. Payton invested in the offensive line, and the Broncos have one of the league’s best. But are they maximizing it? Payton knows he needs to run the ball. He put it on his play sheet last December against the Chargers, and he opened the Colts game with three straight rushing attempts last week.

But he can’t help himself. He wants to pass.

And if that remains his preference, it is fair to wonder if he will ever get the best of Harbaugh.

Harbaugh never wavers. His formula remains to establish the run, play clean and let Herbert throw on a cape, if needed, late.

Payton needs to lean on insight, not impulse. He has a path to an upset. It goes through the backfield. Harbaugh signed Najee Harris and drafted Omarion Hampton, a player pegged for the Broncos even though they never warmed to him. Payton drafted R.J. Harvey and signed J.K. Dobbins, a veteran the Chargers did dirty by placing an unrestricted free agent tender on.

Dobbins looks the best of the four backs. This is his revenge game.

The question is, will Payton allow himself to become Jim to beat him? The answer should be as easy as voting yes on a referendum.

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