NFL DFS Week 3 optimal lineup

The NFL continues to be the best reality show on television.

Last week, Joe Burrow’s toe injury set off a chain-reaction of quarterbacks getting hurt, and fantasy football owners in season-long leagues scrambling to the waiver wire.

The Lions look cooked in Week 1 and then vaporized Chicago at home (something we discussed possibly happening here).

Daniel Jones may be good now, Air Harbaugh could be a thing, and Dallas’ defense is bad enough to bring Russell Wilson back to life.

With the Bills, Ravens and Lions all being showcased in prime time, and off the main slate, one game environment sticks out like a turf toe, er, sore thumb, whichever appendage you prefer for the analogy.

The Cowboys-Bears feature the highest expected game total on the slate (50 1/2), and I’m anticipating most of the field building around Caleb Williams and his dynamic receivers while utilizing CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens or even Jake Ferguson as a “bring back” in traditional builds, or possibly even onslaughting the game with multiple pieces from both sides.

This makes sense because what we witnessed against the Giants last week might be the norm for the Cowboys this season. Also, Bears coach Ben Johnson was the architect behind the Lions’ 47-9 drubbing of the Cowboys in Dallas last season, and Micah Parsons wasn’t available for that game either (obviously Parsons is in Green Bay now).

But what if the Bears don’t show up against the Cowboys? What if Dallas falls flat on the road after a big divisional win at home? Regardless, if you’re trying to take down the Milly Maker, you have to figure out the smartest way to be contrarian against the field.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $3.25 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The lineup netted zilch last week, so I’m in the red $25 with an average score of 110.21 points through two weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

Week 1: 95.52

Week 2: 124.90

Week 3 Lineup

— QB: Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($6,800)

With so many cheap backup quarterbacks available, I imagine the field will take advantage in order to pay up elsewhere, and also build leverage against all of the Dak Prescott and/or Caleb Williams-led lineups. Hurts can be used à la carte because of his rushing prowess, but I actually believe the Rams force the issue this week, causing Philly to be more aggressive in the pass game. Hurts’ ceiling far exceeds everyone else who is available. Building around a Marcus Mariota ($4,000), Deebo Samuel ($6,100) and Brock Bowers ($6,000) stack is my preferred play if you’re paying down at the position.

— RB: Bucky Irving, Buccaneers ($7,100)

Tampa Bay has the second-highest team total (25) on the slate, and Irving is the featured back, seeing 75% of the snaps and 69% of the carries through two weeks. He’s also being targeted on almost 20% of his routes run, so the floor is high. Plus, the field may be scared away after Rachaad White scored the game-winning touchdown against the Texans on Monday night.

— RB: Jordan Mason, Vikings ($5,400)

With Aaron Jones on IR, Mason should receive bell cow usage at home against a Bengals defense that hasn’t improved much (they were awful last season).

— WR: A.J. Brown, Eagles ($6,300)

Brown only has six receptions for 35 yards on nine targets in two games, with his longest catch going for eight yards (twice). The Rams play single high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.7%). According to FantasyPros, Brown had a 36% target share, and a 46.6% first-read share against single high last year. With Akhello Witherspoon out, Brown will likely face off against a very beatable Emmanuel Forbes enough to secure his best game of the season. The squeaky wheel gets the grease.

— WR: Garrett Wilson, Jets ($6,200)

Wilson is the only viable threat in the passing game for Tyrod Taylor to target, and the Jets should be chasing points at Tampa Bay.

— WR: George Pickens, Cowboys ($5,900)

This game environment is impossible to ignore entirely, so the way I’m going to differentiate from the field is to create a mini-stack with the WR2 for each offense. The Bears secondary will be without their top-two cornerbacks: Jaylon Johnson is on IR and Kyler Gordon is nursing a hamstring injury. Chicago’s secondary was already allowing the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

— TE: Cade Otton, Buccaneers ($3,500)

With Emeka Egbuka banged up and Mike Evans potentially facing shadow coverage from Sauce Gardner, Otton (and Irving) could see a bump in usage.

— FLEX: D.J. Moore, Bears ($5,400)

Everyone is excited about Rome Odunze’s breakthrough — he’s currently the overall WR4 in PPR formats — but let’s not forget about Moore, who is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL. The Cowboys play the third-highest rate of two high (64.1%) in the NFL. According to FantasyPros, Moore sees his target share skyrocket to 27.3% and a 36.8% first-read share against two high. Also, Dallas’ defense has allowed the most receiving yards per game and the highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season.

— DST: Minnesota Vikings ($3,400)

If Brian Flores gets his way, the defense will confuse and pressure Jake Browning, producing sacks and turnovers, which hopefully leads to Mason approaching 30 touches.